GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC PREDICTION – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:   Political prognosticator Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is predicting a good election night for Republicans next month, but he also flashes caution.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Senate Democrats are on the verge of losing control of the chamber, with the best scenario being a 50-50 split with Vice President Joe Biden on call to break tie votes, according to election analyst Larry Sabato.

In his latest report on the November midterm election, Sabato said that the Republicans have a good chance of winning control of the chamber, but the implosion of Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts and his muddling campaign has the GOP poised to “snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory.”

“Right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball,” he wrote in his weekly Crystal Ball published by the outfit he runs, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas,” he added.

In five straight polls, Roberts has been behind challenger independent Greg Orman.

But Sabato said there is encouraging news in other states.

“The Republicans are seeing some encouraging public polling in a couple of states President Obama won in 2012, suggesting their increasing potential for gains beyond the comfortable red-tinted territory where they are already positioned to make considerable inroads in November,” Sabato penned with co-analyst Kyle Kondik.

COMMENT:  That's pretty much the same message we're getting from the best of the analysts – predictions of Republican success unless there is a last-minute disruption, which can always happen.  Kansas is turning into agony.  And North Carolina, expected early to flip to the GOP, is holding firm for Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan.

Nothing is in the bag.  But the bag looks reasonably welcoming at the moment.

October 6, 2014